By Charles Jay
* UTAH has won four of the last five meetings SU
* UTAH has covered seven of the last eight meetings
* Four of the last six meetings have gone OVER the total
* UTAH has covered four of the last six meetings as the road team
* UTAH has had the shooting edge in eight of the last nine meetings
* UTAH has had the rebounding edge in each of the last five meetings
* HOU has made more three-pointers in nine of the last ten meetings

Houston went on a tear this season, winning 22 straight games to bring itself from Western Conference also-ran to playoff contender. Of course, losing Yao Ming was a big blow, and this will eventually kill the Rockets' hopes to win the conference title.

In this game, though, they may not be in bad shape. There is an albatross of sorts around the neck of the Jazz, and that is the team's 17-24 SU road record. And although Utah comes into this series with a head of steam, Houston has some momentum as well. After the losing streak ended, the Rockets went into a lull of sorts, dropping five of the next eight games. But the team finished strong, winning six of the last eight.

The key injury for Houston, of course, is Yao. But Rafer Alston is going to miss at least the first two games as he is nursing a bad hamstring. That's a tough break, especially if he has to miss more time than that. In the way of a stopgap, however, you could do worse than Bobby Jackson, who like Alston is not much of a shooter but is rather sure-handed in distributing the ball.

Here is the difference, though, as we see it - Utah has the more beneficial playoff experience, having gone to the conference finals last season; the Jazz has a much more varied offensive game, and that has been enhanced somewhat with the addition of Kyle Korver, who at least gives this team the threat of a long-range bomber. Also, we know the Jazz are going to shoot around 50% from the field, but Houston has shown flashes of wild inconsistency, and they come into this game having shot just 35%, 40% and 41% in their last three. Remember that there were few "throwaway" games down the stretch in the loaded Western Conference.

The Rockets catch a break in that they'll have the home court edge despite Utah being the team that was the division champion. Utah knows it is critical to "break serve" here, so look for Deron Williams, with just a couple of exceptions the finest point guard in the league, to take advantage of Jackson's sore knee by making him work overtime on the defensive end.

We'll go with the Jazz in this one, taking the point in the BetUS NBA betting odds.

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